Speaker 4: I actually had two questions, but this is Urmal Hidayat, two questions maybe we can – I can state the first and get back to the second if there is not enough questions.  The first would be about the feasibility of imposing section on Iran.  Not just on the local respect so of course Turkey has burgeoning traits with Iran right now and other middle eastern country as you said are – I mean their trade with Iran is increasing.  I mean not necessarily to the point that they are dependent on it but to the point that there are certain interest and business groups that would try to fight them.  The second issue is that might well leave a vacuum of investment that would be readily filled by say China or the Soviet Union and China has been shopping around for oil and gas fields from Kazakhstan all the way through sub-Sahara in Africa.  So is that of any concern, or is that taken into account as regards to the feasibility of imposition of sanctions on Iran.

Speaker 2: Now that is your first question or is there a separate first question.

Speaker 4: That is the first question.  The second question would be if you have time to get to that later.  Sometime again I read Roy Stewart’s book, The Prince of the Marshes and it was a fascinating book.  It also left me to this side of depression about the state of the affairs in Iraq so my question would be where does Iraq stand right now and I ask that –

Speaker 2: In regard to what?

Speaker 4: In regard of the civilian transition of power, the civilian transition of who is distributing the funds both at the central and at a local level because in a country with not so strong democratic institutions, what you call local democracy might well fall into the lines of old [???]. So where does Iraq stand in that non-military power transition. Thank you.

Speaker 2: Your first question is right on the mark because the secretary of state has again and again and again said the sanctions have to be multilateral.  She has also made clear that there will be increase unilateral sections on the US part, but without multilateral sanctions the sort of pushing and pulling will just provide advantage to the Russians or to the Chinese to others that don’t cooperate.  Therefore, she has spent a lot of effort and the president, the administration has spent a lot of effort in bringing along the Russians and with reasonable success here they have announced that they are entertaining the idea of sanctions.  The Chinese and the ones who have [???] their feet and continue to do so, the secretary of state said in her address in Doha when I was there about the Chinese that ‘the weight is shifting’ whatever that may mean.  And the news over the weekend says that in New York resolution has been drafted and could be ready as soon as a week from now but all people think could probably be longer more like a month from now.  And so the question is what comes out of all this, will it be effective and I think the answer that is a great big question mark.  The administration favors targeted sanctions particularly against the revolutionary guard, those make sense, but to what extent we will be able to actually enforce the sanctions so that there is some effect on Iranian nuclear policy I think is very slight, I think that it may happen.  I didn’t quite complete the containment policy description because like the policy of George Canon in containment the purpose was to provide time for the regime in Russia, Soviet Union to evolve and back disintegrate.

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