Dr Robert Sutter of George Washington University talks about the rise of China.
Summary:
Rumi Forum’s discussion “China’s Encumbered Rise in Asia and the United States” featured Dr. Robert G. Sutter (professor of Practice of International Affairs at George Washington University). Independent journalist and moderator Wei Wang invited Dr. Sutter, emphasizing his years of academic and policy experience with the Asia-Pacific region, to discuss his views on the oft-examined political and economic rise of China, and to share specifically his academic conclusions on the United States’ maintenance of influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
Dr. Sutter’s work contributes to a broad trend of scholarship that seeks to analyze China’s rise and evaluate its global and regional implications. As a guest with Rumi Forum, Dr. Sutter emphasized key points of his work that characterize his analysis of China’s rise.
“The short of it is, I look at China’s rise in Asia as encumbered.”
In the opening minutes of Dr. Sutter’s discussion, he highlighted the necessity of understanding China’s increased influence, and addressed some key beliefs about this nascent superpower. China’s global reach, he asserts, contributes to its importance and prompts questions regarding the United States’ prospective decline. Many believe that China is poised to “rule the world”. However, Dr. Sutter argues that China’s rise in Asia (and by extension, its global preeminence) is encumbered. Citing his research (in which he spoke to 210 specialists in 10 Asia-Pacific nations), he invites us to consider two main lenses through which we can understand the nation’s current position.
China: Regional Tensions
Sutter contends that Chinese ability to project power in Asia is critical, because if it cannot assert itself regionally, it will be unable to assert itself on the international stage. China’s efforts to assert itself regionally are complicated by often instinctively distrustful neighboring states, who are wary of China’s rise due to events in the past century in which China was a frequently disruptive force in East Asia. Because of this mistrust, China has used various methods over the past decades to reassure their neighbors of their stability. Dr. Sutter discusses in detail how these approaches have yielded mixed results. Ultimately, he says, China chose a “peaceful rise, peaceful development” approach to reassure both their neighbors and the United States, realizing that any confrontational posturing towards the US would result in complications for China’s ascendance. Despite this peaceful approach, however, China’s recent relations with regional powers such as Japan, India, and Russia have dampened. Dr. Sutter concludes that China has made advances in gaining influence regionally, but does not dominate or lead its surrounding nations at this time.
Dr. Sutter proceeds to discuss the tangible situation in East Asia. By looking at China and the US’s strengths and limitations regionally and broadly discussing the region’s dynamics, he summarizes his views on why China’s rise is encumbered.
Dr. Sutter maintains that China’s current strengths are primarily economic, citing the plethora of Asian investment that permeates China. A secondary strength he emphasizes is China’s facility in conducting multilateral relations aimed at reassuring global powers of its stability. Finally, he adds that China’s loyal international diaspora, strengthened by a resilient culture, is a positive vector for Chinese relations internationally. However, Dr. Sutter notes that the growth of the People’s Liberation Army in China overshadows China’s reassurances towards neighboring nations.
The PLA, Sutter finds, is not the only factor that interferes with China’s peaceful approach. Chinese nationalism is a growing force that makes resolving regional territory and sovereignty disputes difficult, limiting China’s rise. Furthermore, some states question the predictability and intentions of China’s authoritarian government. Returning to economics, Sutter claims that the interdependency of Asian markets with larger markets in the European Union and the United States hinders China’s regional economic primacy. China’s continuing engagement in what Sutter calls ‘win-win diplomacy’ ensures that the nation maintains traditional international agreements, but avoids pressure to address traditionally contentious issues. Ultimately, this diplomacy style soothes other large powers, and ensures that China maintains its traditional obligations.
China and the US in Contrast
Dr. Sutter views China’s opposition to Bush administration policies, their stance against the invasion of Iraq, the US’s low prioritization of multilateralism and climate change issues, and the US’s stance towards North Korea, with whom China conducts relations, to be significant limitations of US policy in East Asia.
Concerning US strengths, Dr. Sutter states: “There are two fundamental strengths of the US in Asia, and this is why the US is the leader in Asia, and these are things you can measure to see if the US is in decline or not.” These strengths referenced by Sutter are security and the US’s economic and public relationship with China. Many nations in Asia are uneasy about China’s rise, causing them to encourage the US to continue its military presence there. Referring to this presence, Dr. Sutter argues “If this changes, then [those] calculations of Asian governments will change, and the US is in decline”. Furthermore, he notes that the US maintains a position of economic predominance in the region, and that until China unequivocally leads economically, the US will be the leading regional power. Finally, Dr. Sutter notes that US-China relations in business and other non-state interactions benefit both nations, stating that “the webs of relationships the US has with Asia are enormous”.
Ultimately, Sutter observes that the China’s rise globally and in the Asia-Pacific region is encumbered due to its history. Though many see China’s rise as an unrelenting certitude, he contends that China is neither militarily nor economically poised to lead as the United States currently does.
Biography:
Dr. Robert G. Sutter, Robert Sutter has been Visiting Professor of Asian Studies at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, since 2001. In addition to this full-time position, Sutter teaches regularly as Adjunct Professor of Asian Studies in the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University.
A Ph.D. graduate in History and East Asian Languages from Harvard University, Sutter taught part-time for over thirty years at Georgetown, George Washington, Johns Hopkins Universities, or the University of Virginia. He has published 18 books, over 100 articles and several hundred government reports dealing with contemporary East Asian and Pacific countries and their relations with the United States. His most recent book is U.S.-Chinese Relations: Perilous Past, Pragmatic Present (Rowman and Littlefield 2010).
Sutter’s government career (1968-2001) involved work on Asian and Pacific affairs and US foreign policy for the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of State, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was for many years the Senior Specialist and Director of the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division of the Congressional Research Service.
He also was the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and the Pacific at the US Government’s National Intelligence Council, and the China Division Director at the Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.