Octavio: And have an advantage.
Dr. Werz: And have an advantage that is fairly new and as you point out, if there is an economic crisis and you lose like five or 7 or 8% of the elites in your country because people just take decision to move else where that’s a problem. And I think with regard to all these issue you need to take a long term perspective. And that also go back to the Arizona issue. It is important to address this issue now maybe not within election campaigns but because the issues need to be addressed. But you need to have a longer term perspective again especially in Europe because of demographic changes which are dramatic. One example, Germany between now and 2040 will lose 30% of its active work force. Average age will go to 57 years by then, at the end of the century the newest [IB] age say that out of the 84 million Germans 37 million will be left. So society will lose almost 60% of its population over the next 60, 80 or 90 years. The demographic changes are so massive in Europe that there is no other way; you can’t even replace these numbers by immigration. Germany would need 800,000 to 1,000,000,000 immigrants a year just to replace labor force. The overall population would still decline right, and they are now somewhere between 90 and 100,000 immigrants and people think it’s far too many. The United States is a similar issue; Mexico has the most actively declining fertility rates in the entire world. From 6.4 children in 1970 to 2.3, 2.4 now.
And the urban centers and Guadalajara, [Monterey], Mexico city fertility rates are way below reproductively which is 2.1, two for parents and 0.1 for child fertilities. So it is absolutely clear that if the Mexican economy picks up which it has the potential to do and the demographic development, the United States is going to hit that demographic decline about 50 to 20 years later than Europe. And that it will be smoother because of higher fertility rates of the immigrants. Latinos account for almost 30% of the newborns right now although it’s 14 and a half percent the population. So that’s actually helping the United States to not lose population as rapidly. But 15 to 20 years right now we’ll be chopping holes into that damn fence because Mexico will not be capable of supplying the need for unskilled labor for United States. When aging societies will need more people, in hospitals hospitality services, gardening you name it. And the question is where do you import skilled and unskilled labor from that matter from if not, if neighboring countries cannot supply these needs anymore.
And that is a basic question for modern industrial society which relies upon to a great degree, upon intellectual and technological innovation that reach our age but people who are slightly younger than we are. So in Europe that is massive problem even more substantial than United States because continental Europe virtually has no resources, a little bit of coal, a little bit of oil but that’s it. So the question is how do you make these societies work when they are aging, when there is not enough influx, when there is not enough innovation and when its absolutely clear that the core export products namely; technological advance, technological approach is going to be produced in Asia and south east Asia a lot cheaper than they are in Europe. Really important question and I think that I’m missing that longer term dimension. It would help I think to calm the hyper ventilation in the political discussion Mexico and the United States, these societies are growing together. Mexicans don’t like it, many Americans don’t like it, and they export cheap labor. We exported 1.4 million retired people, Mexicans are not happy about that having these aging Americans down there. Mexico exports drugs we give them back dry foods this is just, I mean there is an exchange that is going on that you won’t be able to stop by maintaining the illusion that you just rebuild the Berlin wall. It’s not the net worth and that wall was fairly sophisticated.
Person: Hi, my name is Salma Owsley I’m Turkish American, I work with a large group of Hispanic students, and I’m a high school teacher by the way. And African American students [IB] public schools. I just want to go back to [IB] because it has a big impact on my students as well because they are really, really scared. I know some of them are; legal, some of them are illegal. And their parents are also concerned. Okay we had kind of advisory class and we brought up that issue, we discussed the issue school wide. So including African American students. And actually this law is very [reminiscive] of the past because this is what the African American students are saying. So in the past after emancipation proclamation they were given freedom papers and all ex-slaves were supposed to just linger around with their freedom papers and it’s the same its their reputation of the historical events. So in that sense they don’t support that idea at all, they are against. Because people are asking what if they don’t have their papers with themselves and they are just going to be kicked out of this country all that they are legal just looking at their looks that’s very unconstitutional. And they are also kind of nervous about that subject because that’s going to spread that that’s going to spark other fear. What if this racial profiling spread around and affect other minorities. So it is their way that we can speculate because if this going to be effective on July…