So the key was very violent. It was clearly not as a part of this broad political movement. It leads to the overthrow of the government it leads [Bakiyev] leaving, eventually going to Belarus which was an interesting story in itself and I know you’re doing some work on Belarus maybe you can comment on that. But I have to admit that was not my first pick and I would have lost the bet of where he was going with that. I did not assume he would go to Belarus that was a bit of a, a bit of a surprise in that one but where he still is right now. So the government is started, had a very much more difficult start for the interim government to take power because it wasn’t this clear overthrow as it was in 2005. It was this very difficult time there was still a lot of violence going on in the streets. So the interim government kind of had to create their own legitimacy in a sense almost create their own government and that’s part of their problem even today. There is not a clear sense of legitimacy and authority that the current government actually has. And then we move to the much more difficult dynamic of what happens in June of 2010 and this is where it becomes a lot more difficult to ascertain, becomes a lot muddier. Anytime you are dealing with a lot more violence it becomes more difficult to pull out the threads and I think it will take some time to understand what happened as a famous quote. I believe it was the Chinese premier minister was asked what he thought the influence of the French revolution was and he’s comment was its still too early to tell. So I think if we are only seeing a few months back from the events there we’ll have a difficult time understanding.

But I would make the comment that I think there were three dynamics that were occurring in the June events and its important that we recognize that all three of these were involved what’s the weight to each of them or what’s the weight to each or how much percentage to each of them? At this point I honestly don’t know. And I think that’ll take some more investigation and understanding but there were three groups that I would define it one is the political entrepreneurs. The same group that I referenced in 2005. Local leaders that are after their own interests that are using small local crowds to achieve specific goals. The second one which, this is important they weren’t involved in the initial stages in 2005. These are the organized crime entrepreneurs and they played a key role in 2010. In 2005 their role was primarily in the battles that occurred over the summer after the March protest. So I would argue that the organized crime entrepreneurs had much, very little to do with the March 24th protest they kind of came in right at the very end of the wave. And there that struggle really came out into the open over the summer of 2005 when you actually had assassination you had killings that occurred. They were very targeted, leaders of some criminal elements were taken out others were put in place government officials were killed. It was a very targeted inner battle for control of who would maintain control?

But it wasn’t broad scale mass panic it was simply a very targeted internal fight. Whereas in 2010 the dynamics there are much more difficult to untangle. They were clearly involved, I my perspective at this time is I don’t think they started it but I think they built on it. I mean they used the instability for their own goals. And the third group would be ethnic entrepreneurs, and that’s a difficult one to ascertain. But there were clearly those that wanted to take revenge for certain issues. There are clearly those that for ethnic reasons wanted to either extract business revenge or they felt that either [news] [IB] had a business that they felt that they were wrong by having. Or some other reason that they wanted to use the opportunity of the conflict to really step in and take advantage.

And the rally is that when these types of violence these types of conflicts… I’ve seen this in many other places in parts of the world. When they begin to spread when they begin to build you have multiple elements that begin to build on top of it that are completely separate from the original dynamics of why it actually started. And suddenly somebody comes to your village and says 10 women, 10 courageous women were just raped down the street we’ve got to grab our pitch fork we’ve got to grab our gun we’ve got to go settle this. You may believe them and you may run down the street because that’s the story that you’re hearing and that’s a horrible thing and you have to protect your family. You have to protect your sister your daughter your mother. And so you’re suddenly responding to that. And then that begins to build you have lack of information you have people that just suddenly come together. And that in a sense is the, it’s the final layer but unfortunately it’s the layer that burns the brightest. You have these others that tend to be smaller more targeted, but that sets off the larger flames. That’s really the context I think we have to look at the events in 2010. I don’t think we can say this is all ethnic violence, we can’t say it’s all criminal elements and we can’t say it’s all just political people maneuvering or the former regime maneuvering and being behind the scenes. I think those are all part of it, but I think the hard part will be disentangling those.