“Turkey’s EU Ambition: Can we Avoid Derailment?” with Dr. Frances G. Burwell, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Program on Transatlantic Relations

Interviewee:    I’ve just come back from Brussels.  And I talked there with some politicians and also some of the officials of the European Union.  I have to say that this is one of the most dire times that I have seen in terms of Turkey’s application process.  I suggested this title about Avoiding Derailment before I left because I knew that there were issues, and it’s always good to have an interesting topic.

Interviewer:    Provocative topic.

Interviewee:    Provocative topic.

Interviewee:    But I came back concerned that we are in fact heading for a derailment or a train wreck, whatever metaphor you wish to use.  There are couple reasons for this.  First off, the negotiating process has slowed considerably in part because of this need for unanimity in opening chapters, and I’ll come back to that.  Secondly, we have a couple of deadlines looming in the late part of 2009.  One is the deadline for the Ankara protocols.  This is something that in 2006 you may know that 10 countries joined the EU, most of central Europe.  The Cypress was also one of the new members as was Malta.  Turkey was required to extend its customs union to all the new members, and that meant opening its ports to Cypriote flagships and its airports to Cypriote carriers, and Turkey has not wanted to do this.  But, it cannot discriminate between member states.

Interviewer:    Uh-um.

Interviewee:    And so, this has put Turkey and the EU in a bond.  The other issue that is coming up is the Cypress negotiations themselves.  We are all recognized.  The difficulties that arose after the rejection of the referendum by the Greek Cypriote population.  There are now is a new UN effort underway with new leadership on the Greek Cypriote side, but there are also issues about whether that will be completed in time before the Turkey Cypriote’s phase the presidential election in, I believe, April of next year.  One of the interesting changes, a shift in mood that I have felt in Europe is the following:  When you would talk to officials who were responsible for enlargement in the past, they would say well Turkey legally has been granted candidate status.  So the question is not if, it is when.