“Turkey’s EU Ambition: Can we Avoid Derailment?” with Dr. Frances G. Burwell, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Program on Transatlantic Relations

Interviewer:    Turkey does indeed pose a unique challenge for other member nations, does it not?

Interviewee:    It absolutely does.  Turkey is a very large country.  I remembered when the Berlin wall fell and many of us had hesitations about a united Germany.  It would suddenly become a much bigger member.  And the union was never really designed to have one large member.  They’ve survived the unification of Germany.  It has sometimes been difficult, but it’s also true that as soon as Turkey enters the union, it will have more representatives in the European parliament than any other country.  And it will be because it is so big, it will be politically impossible to deny, legally possible but politically impossible to deny Turkey a commissioner, which is one of the top spots in EU policymaking.  Other countries are now facing a future where they may not always have a commissioner.  It would be, I think we can expect within the next few years to see the Baltics for example rotate a commissioner.

Interviewer:    Uh-hmm.

Interviewee:    Because you will not be able to have, by the time you bring in Croatia, Turkey and then Balkan States which are also on the membership route.  So you are probably talking about a union that is 35.  So you can’t have 35 decision-makers sitting at one table.  That just gets too complicated.  So once Turkey comes in, it will immediately play an important role.

Interviewer:    Uh-hmm.

Interviewee:    And there is fear.  And there is concern because Turkey is different.  It is largely Muslim.  I think for many in Western Europe, they are not as aware as they should be about the changing nature of their own populations, and I think that is something that they will have to deal with.  I think the issue of Turkey’s geographical position is another one that is difficult.  And it is something that, it depends on how you view the world.  Do you want Turkey to be a barrier that protects you from Syria, Iran and Iraq, or do your interests dictate that you play an active role with those countries?  In which case, Turkey has already established relations with those countries in a very intense way.